The new 2008 real estate market reports for the Texas 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are available on the TAMU Real Estate Center's Web site. Myself, and most other Realtors I know, find the information and publications available on this site to be extremely informative and valuable.
You can access the Austin area report directly here Austin Real Estate Market Report (NOTE: you must have Adobe Acrobat Reader for all of the reports) or access all 25 reports at Texas Real Estate Market Reports.
The reports cover census data, employment and unemployment, major industries, business climate, education, transportation and infrastructure issues, growth patterns and much more. Best of all, they are free.
A recent Forbes.com article placed the four largest cities in our great state in their list of "10 Recession Proof Communities".
To reach their findings, Forbes.com examined the 50 largest U.S metro areas and examined several key indices.
They examined U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of unemployment data for the year ending February 2008 to see which areas are adding or subtracting most jobs. Then they looked at the BLS data on job growth in non-farm payrolls, through February 2008, for construction, education and health services, financial activities, information, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, natural resources and mining, professional and business services, trade, transportation and utilities, and the BLS's catch-all category, "other services."
In addition, they looked into median home price data from the National Association of Realtors--from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007--to see which areas posted the largest annual gains. They're quick to add that their data do not account for the impact of declining sales in the first several months of this year.
Lastly, the rankings were adjusted using data from a November 2007 report, "U.S. Metro Economies: The Mortgage Crisis," by the U.S. Conference of Mayors. It lists each city's estimated gross metropolitan product growth by projecting how rising foreclosures and falling home prices would affect overall levels of productivity in local economies.
According to the article, Texas cities fared best under the above measures. San Antonio, Austin, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth have benefited from historically lower home prices, which have been affordable to a large segment of the population. The availability of land--and, in some cases, little zoning--helped keep prices in these cities low. Instead of competing for homes, Texans could move to a new subdivision a little farther out.
What's more, all four boast falling unemployment rates, with Austin dropping from 3.8% to 3.6% and San Antonio from 4.3% to 4%.
I've been getting a lot of inquiries and thought I'd pass along this information for anyone who might need it.
Important Information About Your 2008 Tax Appraisal
Check your mail: Appraisal notices in Travis and Williamson County have been mailed and you should have received them by now. In Hays County, notices are expected to start arriving in early May. If you do NOT receive your notice it probably means the Appraisal District for you county does not have your correct mailing address and you MUST contact them. They're not going to hunt you down and you don't want to miss an opportunity to contest the new values.
To Protest: VERY IMPORTANT - The deadline for protesting property appraisals is June 1, or 30 days after receiving the appraisal notice, whichever comes last.
In Travis County, call 512-834-9138 for information on filing a protest or go to www.traviscad.org.
In Williamson County, call 512-930-3787 or go to www.wcad.org for information.
In Hays, call 512-268-2522 or go to www.hayscad.com.
For Your Information: Members of the Travis Appraisal Review Board will have a community forum from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. April 26 at the Carver Branch Library, 1161 Angelina St. The purpose is to educate the public about how the residential property valuations protest process works, how to file for exemptions, tax deferrals and the time line to protest values. Attendees are asked to bring their 2008 appraisal notice.
Think living in Austin is like a permanent vacation? I agree, and we're not alone. A recent article in U.S. News and World Report cited Austin among the "10 Greenest Places to Retire".
With so many wilderness preserves and parks, Austin was named an ideal city to help raise grandchildren. Austin's 351 acre Zilker Park, was cited for its recreation and natural settings, including the hike-and-bike trails, hillside theater, swimming holes and botanical and sculpture gardens. And to think they didn't even mention the recreational opportunities on Lake Travis, Lake Austin and Lady Bird Lake or other magnificent preservation areas in the nearby Hill Country.
Other cities that made the list include Albuquerque, N.M.; Chicago; Virginia Beach, Va.; Raleigh, N.C.; San Diego, Calif.; Phoenix, Jacksonville, Fla.; Colorado Springs, Colo.; and Portland, Oregon.
Hollows At Northshore, Jonestown - Announcing a price reduction on 17800 Maritime Point #202, a 1,245 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm single story. Now $375,000 - Hollows Hilltop Condo.
This Hollows Hilltop Villa condo is an extraordinary value. It features custom made plantation shutters and exquisite furnishings (price of furniture is negotiable) fit for a King, Queen and their growing family. The Hollows on Lake Travis is one of the finest vacation and residential destination is Central Texas, if not the entire country. Amenities in The Hollows include 18+ miles of hike and bike trails, many lighted for night time use, the #1-ranked, and only deep water Marina on Lake Travis, two Kayak Clubs, a private campground, a private Beach Club with two pools and three hot tubs, The Beach Club Grill restaurant with inside dining or poolside service, a fitness center, private sand beach, amphitheater, shore side hammocks and the always popular Smokehouse--a kitchen/picnic area with multiple grills, a smoker and cook tops along with a fully equipped kitchen with ice maker, fridge, sinks, coffee maker, can open and the majority of normal household kitchen equipment--bring your friends, family, food, plates and cutlery and enjoy!
Property information
It is a rather strange phenomenon. The area's home sales decline doesn't seem to be slowing down yet prices continue to rise. Sales of existing homes fell a whopping 21%, 1,832 homes in March, the 9th consecutive month to show a decline, according to figures from the Austin Board of Realtors. Meanwhile, pending sales are also down a record 54 percent to 1,349, an indication that sales are unlikely to pick up any time soon.
The strange part is that the median sales price for Central Texas homes increased 5 percent in the last year to $186,680. But the total dollar volume of properties sold in the region fell 23 percent compared with March 2007 to $434.6 million.
Austin Board of Realtors Chairman Socar Chatmon-Thomas says the number of active listings locally represents about five months of housing inventory. While that figure could be lower, she points out that it is far better than the national average of close to 10 months.
• 2,180 sq. ft., 4 bath, 4 bdrm 2 story - 
MLS® $780,000 - Largest Model Available
Hollows At Northshore, Jonestown - Rustic elegance abounds in this spacious water view Cottage in The Bluffs section of The Hollows at Northshore, recently voted "Best Master Planned Community in the Austin area by The Austin Business Journal. Three beds and three and one half baths in main house, full bath in master suite above the detached garage for friends or family. Canyon and water views from wonderful covered deck. Firepit and Custom Outdoor Grill complete the outdoor living environment. Largest model Hollows Cottage currently available.
EXCELLENT INVESTMENT/RENTAL POTENTIAL - call for details.
Property information
Move over Steiner Ranch! There's a new place to live that offers a completely unique and exciting lifestyle!
An article in a special section of today's issue of The Austin Business Journal names The Hollows at Northshore, an exclusive luxury and second home community on the north shore of Lake Travis outside of Austin as "Best Master Planned Community" for 2008. I am especially excited since I am one of the approximately 30 full time residents. The Hollows truly is a one-of-a-kind community which, as described by the article, was designed to preserve the beauty of the Hill Country and lake areas while bringing an incredible array of amenities including the number one rated, and only deep water Marina on Lake Travis, a private Beach Club with a full service restaurant including poolside service, fitness center, multiple pools and hot tubs, an outdoor kitchen and grilling area, private sand beach, two kayak clubs, amphitheater and, perhaps my personal favorite, about (so far) 18 miles of paved and natural hike and bike trails. Many of the paved trails are lighted for night time enjoyment.
One of the Hike & Bike trails and bridges at night
The Hollows Beach Club Amenity Center
An article published today on GlobeSt.com, a Web site providing "Commercial Real Estate News and Property Resource" reported that Dallas-based Macfarlan Capital Partners LP, whom they referred to as "an industry-recognized contrarian" has "cherry-picked" The Hollows on Lake Travis, The Waters on Horseshoe Bay, Pointe West, all in Central Texas along with two other resort and second-home property holdings from Centex Destination Properties and has absorbed its 135-employee hospitality group to create TerraMesa Resorts. According to GlobeSt, Macfarlan predicts the build-out value will be greater than $1 billion in five years.
GlobeSt quotes founder and managing partner Dean Macfarlan as saying "These are irreplaceable properties in unique mountain, lake and ocean locations. The market timing was right for us to make an investment in this space... We believe there is phenomenal long-term intrinsic value for our investors." He added that more than $180 million will be used to finish the resorts and upgrade current amenities in the next three to five years.
Also according to GlobeSt, Macfarlan considers The Hollows "the crown jewel" and that it earned the top ranking for its one mile of lake frontage and in-place infrastructure to produce finished lots on the remaining 300 acres.
The full text of the article follows:
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| Macfarlan Seeds $1B Plan With Centex Resorts
By Connie Gore at GlobeSt.com
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| Wednesday, April 02, 2008 - DALLAS-Macfarlan Capital Partners LP, an industry-recognized contrarian, has cherry-picked five resorts and second-home communities in three states from Centex Destination Properties and absorbed its 135-employee hospitality operating group to launch the TerraMesa Resorts brand. The buyer predicts the build-out value will top $1 billion in five years.
"These are irreplaceable properties in unique mountain, lake and ocean locations. The market timing was right for us to make an investment in this space," Dean Macfarlan, founder and managing partner of Dallas-based Macfarlan Capital Partners, tells GlobeSt.com. "We believe there is phenomenal long-term intrinsic value for our investors." He says more than $180 million will be invested into finishing resorts and upgrading existing amenities in the next three to five years.
The acquisition spans 3,900 acres, of which 1,900 acres are available for development, 290 finished lots, 48 cottages, 27 condos and three marinas in resort-style wrappings with pools, hot tubs, canoe and kayak clubs, a nine-hole Jack Nicklaus golf course and hike and bike trails. The TerraMesa portfolio consists of six resorts, one of which was bought four months ago, the V at Lake Las Vegas, a land claim to the highest point overlooking the lake for an elite development in a 15th Century Florence design.
The just-bought package includes the Hollows at 19503 Old Burnet Rd. in Lago Vista, TX, which has a 221-slip marina and tram and a rating as Texas' best marina. Situated on the north shore of Lake Travis, the resort has 400 developable acres and 95 existing single-family lots.
Also in Texas is the Waters at Horseshoe Bay Resort, with some of the last developable land fronting Lake Lyndon B. Johnson in the fabled Hill Country. It has 10 existing condos and an under-construction 100-slip marina. It is positioned 50 miles west of Austin.
The third Texas property is Pointe West, an oceanfront claim at 4161 Pointe West Dr. in Galveston. The value-add play has 300 developable acres, 42 existing single-family lots, ocean and bay frontage, fishing pier, trails and Sunset Beach pool club with two restaurants, game room, cabana, bar, pool and hot tubs.
In western North Carolina, Macfarlan has taken over Bear Lake Reserve at 412 Lake Forest Dr. in Tuckasegee. Its value-add is 900 developable acres, 125 single-family lots, 48 cottages and access to a 400-acre private lake. It sports the Jack Nicklaus-designed Summit Golf Course and Lake Clubhouse with restaurant, fitness center, pool and hot tub. "It is 75% to 80% finished," Macfarlan adds.
In New Hampshire's White Mountains, the South Peak Resort at Loon Mountain in Lincoln is now in TerraMesa's hands. It has 300 developable acres, 28 finished single-family lots, 17 condos in a true year-round, ski-in/ski-out resort with a recently finished quad lift at the heart of the land tract.
Macfarlan believes South Peak presents the greatest value-add. "I'm really excited about that being a really unique experience in the Northeast," he says.
And Macfarlan believes the crown jewel is the Hollows, which earned the top ranking for its one mile of lake frontage and in-place infrastructure to produce finished lots on the remaining 300 acres.
The hospitality circuit had whispered last fall that Centex Destination Properties, a division of Dallas-based Centex Homes, was shopping its portfolio, but the rumor couldn't be confirmed. Macfarlan says talks began 14 months ago for select resorts in the 10-asset portfolio. Florida wasn't part of the pursuit due to the "difficult market," he explains.
What Macfarlan did pick are "great assets with existing platforms that allow us to scale quickly" as he games out a plan to target buyers in the $300,000 to $650,000 price range in prized locations. He says the elite property sweep was based on resorts that he felt would translate into memory-making vacations for families. "I've always traveled to make memories and I return to places to create memories for my family," he says.
Macfarlan Capital Partners will own the real estate and the TerraMesa Resorts & Hospitality Group on behalf of a sponsored fund fueled by US investors. "The chance to acquire exceptional assets with the execution team in place doesn't come along very often," Macfarlan says. Debt was placed with Colonial Bank and Bank of the Ozarks.
Scott Covington, the buyer's COO, has been named president of TerraMesa Hospitality Group. The plan is to keep the existing property names as they build a multi-faceted brand that could include an exchange program among owners at the various properties, but not in a timeshare or fractional share sense--at least not at this time. What is clear is Macfarlan is not done buying. "We're definitely looking to add more investments," he says. The investment group has been funding hospitality loans nearly five years. It also is in a joint venture for a property in Italy.
"We do have some experience that made us confident in this space. But, we're realists. The slowdown has affected all aspects of real estate ownership and our properties won't be immune," Macfarlan explains. "We are investing for the long haul and believe the underlying value of these resorts will create significant appreciation for our investors. Despite market fluctuations of for-sale properties, the underlying land values, we believe, will protect our downside."
Aerial View of The Hollows
The Austin Business Journal reports that a new research report questions whether some of the new condo projects projected for Central Austin will move forward under their original timelines, or at all, given the decline of available financing.
The report from Residential Strategies Inc. shows that there are more than 5,800 condo units planned or recently completed in Central Austin. Of those, about 2,500 units are currently under construction. But with more than 2,100 units anticipated in projects that have yet to break ground, the report casts doubt on whether some of those will be able to proceed given that "developers' ability to obtain financing for new projects has been significantly hindered by the current 'credit crunch.'"
The average per-square-foot value for local projects stands at $351, with the higher end of the spectrum topping out around $750 a square foot for luxury downtown high rises and units in East and South Austin valued at an average of $350 a square foot.
Nevertheless, the report seems to support the assertion among developers that demand for units is strong. Since presales efforts for the most recent wave of projects began in 2004, about 2,856 units have been committed. That averages out to 725 to 900 units annually--roughly twice the absorption Dallas experiences each year.
As for resales, Residential Strategies says about 1,045 condos or townhomes were sold in 2007, and the number of units sold was up in almost every price-point category.
Though Austin continues to fair better than other major markets in the current housing slump, the Residential Strategies report argues that the region is not immune to the ailing new home market conditions being experienced elsewhere around the country.
"The overall perception of the health of the new home market from prospective buyers will continue to present challenges for the sales forces at new condo projects," the report states.
A snapshot of several projects' sales/reservations through the end of first quarter 2008:
- Four Seasons Residences: 166 units total; 60 units committed.
- The Austonian: 188 units; 45 committed.
- The Shore: 192 units; 189 committed.
- Zilker Place: 74 units; 29 committed.
- W Austin: 196 units; 140 committed.
- SoCo Lofts: 69 units; 41 committed.
Courtesy of Alamo Title Company The Week in Review |
March 23 - March 29, 2008 (compared to the same week in 2007) New listings up 33.07% Pendings are down 75.27% Solds are down this week by 55.45%
As for Average Prices: Mar. 23 - Mar. 29, 2008 (compared to the same week in 2007) The "New Listings" average list price increased 2.04% to $317,913. Last week that number was $289,063. In 2007 the new listing average list price was $311,554.
Sold average sales prices increased 1.06% to $239,621. In 2007 it was $237,103 for the same week.
The Month in Review | February 2008
Units for Sale: (compared to the same month in 2007) New listings are up by 58.04%. Pendings are down 12.37%. Solds decreased by 26.88%.
As for Average Prices: The "New Listings" average list price is up 4.94% to 313,233. Sold average sales prices increased 0.33% to $233,015 compared to $232,259 in 2007. |
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COPY OF THE PRESS RELEASE
MACFARLAN CAPITAL PARTNERS ANNOUNCE PURCHASE OF CENTEX DESTINATION PROPERTIES ASSETS
Macfarlan Forms TerraMesa Resorts to Manage Exclusive Destinations andSecond Home Communities Located on Lakes, Ocean front and Mountains
DALLAS, March 25, 2008 — Macfarlan Capital Partners, L.P. a Dallas-based private real estate investment firm announced today the purchase of five exclusive resort and second home communities in three states. These newly acquired properties will become part of TerraMesa Resorts brand, a resort development and management company formed by Macfarlan.
TerraMesa Resorts is an innovative resort development and management company that will oversee operations at the acquired properties that include The Hollows on Lake Travis and The Waters at Horseshoe Bay Resort on Lake Lyndon B. Johnson, both near Austin, Texas; Pointe West in Galveston, Texas; Bear Lake Reserve in Tuckasegee, N.C.; and South Peak Resort on Loon Mountain, in Lincoln, N.H. Macfarlan previously purchased "V" at Lake Las Vegas in Nevada from Centex and this also becomes a TerraMesa Resorts property.
"I've always traveled to make memories and I return to places to create memories for my family," said Dean Macfarlan, founder and Managing Partner of Macfarlan Capital Partners. "This is the philosophy behind TerraMesa Resorts, --destinations that become family memories - and communities that people return to again and again."
The luxury second-home and resort properties were purchased from the Centex Destination Properties (CDP) division of Centex Homes, a subsidiary of Centex Corporation's (NYSE: CTX). The purchase includes acquisition of the Centex Hospitality platform, which directs operations in the communities, and now becomes part of TerraMesa Resorts.
All five properties are set in uniquely beautiful locations on the shores of pristine lakes, forested mountains or windswept beaches. They include marinas, golf courses, water and snow skiing, mountain fishing and other amenities to draw people outdoors and encourage family activities.
"The properties are beautiful and the team assembled by Centex has years of experience in successful resort management," said Scott Covington, President of TerraMesa Hospitality Group. "This expertise will now be combined with Macfarlan's financial strength and entrepreneurial spirit to create some of the most desirable vacation destinations in the country. We intend to take these remarkable properties and make them even better."
Timothy R. Eller, chairman and chief executive officer of Centex Corp., said: "Our employees on the CDP team and with Centex Hospitality Group have done an outstanding job of building these projects into premier resort and second-home communities. We're pleased to have completed this agreement with Macfarlan, a firm that shares our desire for high quality and customer satisfaction. For Centex, this transaction supports our strategy of focusing on our core homebuilding business as we prepare to take advantage of the opportunities ahead."
About Macfarlan
Macfarlan Capital Partners, L.P. is a private real estate fund sponsor committed to serving institutional investors, family offices, wealth management advisors and individuals. Built upon nearly a quarter-century of direct commercial real estate experience and having completed over $1 billion in real estate investments, Macfarlan has cultivated an extensive network of proprietary relationships and unmatched insight into the real estate sector. Deep experience and an extensive network enables better pricing of fundamental value and presents exceptional investment opportunities. Macfarlan's entrepreneurial creativity and institutional discipline produce outstanding risk-adjusted returns through all phases of the real estate cycle. For more information, visit www.macfarlan.com
About TerraMesa Resorts
TerraMesa Resorts is a privately-held resort development and management firm specializing in exclusive active vacation destination communities. The firm, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Macfarlan Capital Partners, owns and operates destination communities in Texas, North Carolina New Hampshire and Nevada. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas. For more information, call 214 932-3113.
About Centex
Dallas-based Centex, founded in 1950, is one of the nation's leading home building companies. Its leading brands include Centex Homes, Fox & Jacobs Homes and CityHomes. In addition to its home building operations, Centex's related business lines include mortgage, title and insurance services, and integrated pest-defense systems. These businesses provide operational or financial support to home building activities and are leaders in their respective industries. Centex has ranked among the top three builders on FORTUNE magazine's list of "America's Most Admired Companies" for nine straight years and leads the industry for quality and customer satisfaction.
February 15, 2008
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS and RON NIXON
AUSTIN, Tex. — The real estate market these days is a tale of two Americas, and one of them is not doing too badly.
In the America of big-city housing markets, especially on the coasts and in the struggling industrial Midwest, the huge run-up in values in recent years has given way to big drops in prices and sales volume. Millions of people owe more than their houses are worth.
But in the other America, specifically in cities like Austin; Grand Forks, N.D.; Yakima, Wash.; and Salem, Ore., the available evidence suggests the real estate market is holding up. Prices there never boomed as crazily as they did in the big cities, and now, even though volume is down almost everywhere, prices in many of these towns are firm or rising.
Consider the experience of one Austin resident, Dan Clark. Forced by a job change to put his house here on the market, he wondered whether he would get anything like the $385,000 he paid for it a year ago. He was floored when the second potential buyer to look at the place snapped it up for $429,000. “Manna from heaven,” he said.
Many people are aware that a handful of big-city markets, like Manhattan and San Francisco, have largely resisted the real estate slide. It is less widely known that the same thing is true in scores of smaller markets.
“I would call them backcountry cities,” said Robert J. Shiller, an economist at Yale University and an expert on real estate markets who predicted the bursting of both the housing and stock market bubbles of recent years. “They are just going through normal growth, and they are out of the bubble picture.”
In figures released on Thursday covering 150 metropolitan areas, the National Association of Realtors said that median home prices were falling in 77 markets — but rising in 73.
Real estate statistics must be interpreted with caution, especially when sales volumes are declining, as they are all over the country. But an analysis by The New York Times of three distinct data sets — mortgage data from the government, sales figures from the Realtors’ group and courthouse records from a company called DataQuick — produced a list of 17 metropolitan areas where all three sources of information agree that prices were still rising as of late last year, the most recent figures available.
For another 43 cities, two data sets, from the Realtors and the government, suggested that prices were still rising late in the year. DataQuick could provide no information on those cities.
How long the situation will last is anyone’s guess. One possibility is that the smaller cities are just lagging behind the big ones in seeing prices fall. And if the economy weakens drastically, all bets are off. But for now, buyers in these towns seem to feel they are getting a lot of house for the money; sellers and brokers are realizing that they have, so far, dodged a bullet.
“When I read about the national real estate market, I feel fortunate I am in Austin,” said Shara Parker, a real estate agent who is happy she turned down a chance four years ago to relocate to Las Vegas, which was booming then and is sinking now. “Our highs are not as high and our lows are not as low.”
Economists say small and medium cities, especially those where land availability is not a constraint on growth, have done better than the nation as a whole because they have followed more traditional economic patterns. New-home prices in most of these places still reflect, more or less, the cost of the labor and materials used to build the houses, in addition to a profit margin.
“There are a lot of places where you didn’t have flipping of real estate,” said Steve Dennis, a business professor at the University of North Dakota. “Since you didn’t have the price appreciation, you don’t have the price correction.”
Generally, the markets that are showing strength do not have the bulging housing inventories of larger cities, because there was relatively little speculative building during the early part of this decade. Most of the towns have only modest exposure to the subprime loan crisis. And falling mortgage rates are buoying these markets.
Typically, their local economies are still producing new jobs and healthy income growth because of factors like rising crop prices (as in Bismarck, N.D.) or local oil booms (Midland, Tex.) or an influx of second-home buyers (Sun Valley, Idaho).
“In 2008, I see momentum growing in Middle America for prices to stabilize and increase, given the historic mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. But he added, “If we go into a recession, it’s possible some markets will reverse themselves.”
Austin is a good example of a real estate market that was slow and steady for years and now appears to be taking off. Austin’s high-tech industries are attracting well-heeled buyers from cities where real estate is far more expensive.
Sales prices for existing homes barely moved from 2001 to 2005, when the markets in a handful of superstar cities were on fire. But last year, the median price for a single family home rose 6.4 percent, to $185,000. It was the second consecutive strong year.
“I have to calm my buyer clients down,” said Mark Minchew, an Austin Realtor, “so they don’t pay too much.”
The fly in the ointment for these cities is declining sales volumes, which prompt some experts to argue that median prices are presenting an unduly rosy picture. If fewer houses sell, but the ones that do sell are at the high end of the range, that can skew median prices.
“In the markets that are doing better, lots of people are not selling their houses, so you don’t see the prices going down because they are not selling for a lower price,” said Todd Sinai, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “The market is doing a lot worse than what the median prices would show.”
Still, in many of the cities where prices are strongest, local Realtors contend that volume drop-offs have been modest, just a few percentage points.
Mr. Clark is one Austin home seller with a happy tale. When a recruiter called him late last year with an enticing executive health care job in Fort Worth, Mr. Clark thought twice about trying to sell a house he had bought only a year before.
“I was concerned after my relocation package ran out I would have to carry either two mortgages or a mortgage and apartment rent,” he recalled. Instead he sold the house for a profit, and only $10,000 below his asking price. “A weight was taken off our shoulders,” he said.
Mike Colpitts, the editor of Housing Predictor, an online housing forecaster, says that the market is still slowing and that some smaller cities will be hit. He projects that only 60 of the 251 markets in the United States that he monitors will show price appreciation in 2008. “The housing market is real sad, and getting sadder,” he said.
Realtors in medium and small cities contend the median price figures may actually underestimate market sentiment, because the issuance of large mortgages has frozen up in recent weeks because of problems on Wall Street. In the view of these Realtors, it is the high-end sales that are stalled in smaller cities, skewing the median price data downward.
“Call me back next year, and we’ll probably have a 3 percent to 5 percent price increase in 2008,” said Rob Higgins, executive vice president for the Spokane Association of Realtors. The median price for a home sold in Spokane was up 2.6 percent in 2007.
In Salem, Ore., “everything is going up, even the lower-income homes,” said Marlene Scully, executive vice president of the Salem Association of Realtors. Realtor data for the metro area that includes Salem showed a 3.6 percent increase for the year.
Ms. Scully noted that of the houses that were listed in 2007, 97.6 percent sold for the listed price, “which tells me there is a strong market because if there weren’t, the sellers would have to negotiate down.”
Clifford Krauss reported from Austin in late January and later added updated information. Ron Nixon reported from New York.
Best Places
America's Fastest-Growing Metros
Brian Wingfield and William Pentland 01.30.08, 2:20 PM ET
It's no secret that the Southeast and Western United States are booming. The costs of living and doing business there are often cheaper there than in big coastal cities. But where and how much those cities are thriving might surprise you.
Take Alabama. The state has some of the fastest growing metro areas in the country, including Mobile, which is projected to have the greatest change in "gross metropolitan product (GMP)," 34% between 2007-2012, according to research forecasts done for us by Moody's Economy.com.
One boon to Alabama is ThyssenKrupp's announcement last year to build a $3.7 billion steel plant in Mobile. And Huntsville--expected GMP growth 15% by 2012--has long been a hub for defense and space research. Since the mid-1990s, Alabama has also become a manufacturing center for automakers like DaimlerChrysler, Toyota and Hyundai.
"The automotive industry has been Alabama's real growth industry in the last 15 years," says Brian Hilson, president and CEO of Huntsville's chamber of commerce.
Other metro areas, like Port St. Lucie and Palm Bay, are part of a growing biotech cluster in central Florida. Straddling Texas and Arkansas, Texarkana is seeing war-related development: Its Red River Army Depot is a major maintenance and storage facility for military equipment. And St. George, Utah, located about 120 miles from Las Vegas, has boomed in recent years as a destination for retirees.
All of them sit at or near the top of Forbes' list of America's fastest-growing metropolitan areas, places large and small that offer at least the promise of booming economies for years to come.
To compile our list, we looked at all of the country's 363 metropolitan areas, defined by the U.S. Census Bureau has a geographic region with a "core urban area" of at least 50,000 people. Because many small metro areas are high growth--and because we wanted to show growth in large cities as well--we split the group into two classes: the largest 100 metro areas (with at least 528,000 people) and everyone else. We use projections run for us by Moody's Economy.com to show growth in GMP between 2007-2012.
Of course, if one looks at economic growth in the country's largest 100 metros, the usual suspects jump to the top of the list. With an estimated 32% GMP growth from 2007-2012, Austin, Texas, is the winner for big metros. Atlanta, Seattle, Orlando, Houston and San Jose, Calif., also appear high on the list. What do they all have in common? They're tech hubs with proximity to universities and a healthy increase in population. Austin's population, for example, is expected to increase by nearly 15% by 2012, according to Moody's Economy.com forecasts.
Bruce Katz, director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, says there are several factors to take into consideration when measuring the pulse of a metro area: innovation, human capital, infrastructure and the actual quality of a place.
"These assets drive everything," says Katz. Some ways to measure them: the number of patents a metro area produces (innovation), the number of college graduates that live there (human capital), the amount of passenger miles its residents travel (infrastructure) and the vibrancy of its downtown area (quality of place).
A glance at the country's most economically healthy large metro areas underscores his point. Computer manufacturer Dell and the University of Texas anchor Austin's tech community. San Jose receives an influx of grads from places like Stanford and UC-Berkeley who want to work in Silicon Valley. Atlanta, home to Emory University and the Georgia Institute of Technology, is also the headquarters of UPS, CNN and AT&T Mobility, the largest cellular carrier in the United States.
To be sure, GMP is not the only method of measuring a metro area's economic vibrancy. Population growth, job growth, housing starts and personal income growth are all other factors to consider. However, we felt that an examination of the output of goods and services in a metro area was perhaps the purest method of determining how vibrant an economy will be several years down the road.
Statistics on the other factors, compiled for us by research firm Global Insight, supported the forecasts for GMP growth. Mobile, Austin, Port St. Lucie, Cape Coral, St. George and other regions with high GMP growth projections all appeared near the top of their lists.
In the current economic climate, predictions for housing starts are open to the most uncertainty. Moody's forecasts take the current slowdown into consideration but do not account for a potential recession. A study compiled by Global Insight and released by the U.S. Conference of Mayors in November found that the most significant losses in real GMP were concentrated in California, though every state has taken a hit.
Several burgeoning metro areas barely missed our list, including Raleigh, N.C., San Antonio, and Atlantic City, N.J. But what about those near the bottom? Most are smaller metro areas in historical manufacturing centers in the Northeast and Midwest. Of the bigger metros Rochester, N.Y., Youngstown, Ohio, and Springfield, Mass., top the list.
They're also low for expected population growth. Why stay there when so many other urban centers are thriving?
In a report today, The Austin Business Journal wrote that after a cautious slowdown in new construction late in 2006 and early this year, Austin homebuilders are forging ahead, starting more than 1,100 more homes during the second quarter of 2007 than during the first quarter, according to a report from housing research group Metrostudy.
The 4,132 new home starts logged last quarter still remains 8% below the number of starts in second quarter 2006. The annual rate of new home starts, or the number of homes begun in the last 12-month period--is also 8 percent below where it stood this time last year, according to the study.
That's due in large part to a significant reduction in starts on new homes priced below $200,000. Concerned over the size of the existing inventory and decreased buyer demand caused by tightening credit standards, volume builders have significantly curbed their speculative building in that price point. Meanwhile, new home construction in the $400,000 to $750,000 range jumped 66 percent during the last 12 months.
"During the last three years, starts in the $400,000 to $750,000 price range increased more than 23 percent," says Eldon Rude, director of Metrostudy's Austin division. "Relocations to the region and move-in buyers taking advantage of Austin's strong appreciation during the last few years have been the primary catalysts to the surge in demand in the upper price ranges."
Buyers closed on 3,818 new homes during the second quarter, a 13 percent decline from second quarter 2006. But the annual closings rate is up 7 percent from last year to 16,125 units.
On the national front, while the demographic demand, or the number of people who want to buy homes, remains strong, the effective demand, or those who can actually afford homes, has been reduced by tightening credit standards produced by the subprime mortgage debacle.
"Even though the fundamental market remains sound, the homebuilding and mortgage-lending industries have created a series of problems that are delaying a round in home sales," says Mike Inselman, president of Houston-based Metrostudy. "Investor inventory and mortgage defaults continue to be a drag on new and used home sales."